It looks pretty clear now that we’ve peaked in the U.S., probably on April 9-10, days 40-41 on my graphs. Two weeks ago I estimated the peak to be at about day 39 because of the epi curves of actual data, not because the modelers were telling us so. I’ve now created a new normal distribution with the mean at day 41 and designed to fit the data (no models required). It shows a total of 33,000 deaths at day 72 but it’s essentially over by day 60, which is 15 days from now. This is the teal colored “Curve 5” in the graphs:

There will no doubt be some sort of tail of the curve and the disease may never go away completely, but neither does the seasonal flu which kills 30,000-60,000 people in the U.S. every year. By the end of April this thing will be over. After that, use sensible precautions, particularly for the elderly and those with underlying conditions, but let’s get back to life.

Then why are some governors, like Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, expanding their stay at home orders when the outbreak is declining?

1. “Now more than ever, it’s crucial that people stay home and stay safe...The order clarifies, however, that travel for vacations...is prohibited.” (source).
   

She proclaimed this edict on April 9, after the peak of deaths and after she knew that the peak of infections occurred three weeks earlier. And let’s not forget that she threatened doctors if they prescribed hydroxycholorquine, only to reverse herself a few days later and then pleaded with Trump to send some to her state. Undoubtedly a clear thinker who is guided only by the facts and who can be trusted implicitly.

Here’s the curve of daily deaths in her state of Michigan through today, April 13 (source). They are a week past peak, which means the peak of infections was a month ago base on incubation times and average time to death for those will will go on to die (see my original post for a description of this).

This is lunacy and can only be explained by the governor being on a big time power trip. She, and others like her, are intoxicated by their new found dictatorial powers to wield absolute control over people. Oh, I forgot, Trump’s the Nazi.

Just when things should be easing up, some are going to do the opposite. They’ve done a great job scaring people witless and that makes them easier to control. How scared are you? Will you ever be willing to go outside without a mask or to a ball game with thousands of other people while there are still a few people getting the virus? Do we lock everyone up until every last virus has been destroyed? How will we know? What if there never is a vaccine? Or what if the virus mutates and the vaccine is then ineffective? Why were you never afraid about going out during flu season when 30,000-60,000 people die every year and your risk of dying goes up as you get older and if you have underlying conditions?

When does the risk become acceptable, and will you allow politicians to make that decision for you in the name of public health? What if they tell you you can’t go to church for 18 months, for the good of society? Does the Bill of Rights become void when people get sick? I think the people of Michigan who have started a recall petition on the governor have the right idea.